Earlier this week, I had the opportunity to moderate a point/counterpoint panel discussion at our 18th annual Acquire or Be Acquired conference at the Arizona Biltmore.  A fixture on the agenda*, we once again invited four panelists to join me on stage & respond to five "deal-or-grow" type statements by indicating their position (pro or con).  Based on their perspectives, we subsequently polled an audience of 500+ bank CEOs, CFOs, Chairmen and board members to ascertain what these officers & directors think will happen in 2012.

Joining me on stage this year were Steve Hovde, the President & Chief Executive Officer @ the Hovde Group, Ron Janis, a partner at the law firm of Day Pitney, Doug McClintock a Partner at Alston & Bird and Michael Mayes, Managing Director, Raymond James.  A tip of my cap to each of them; all four did a tremendous job sharing their thoughts within the 2 minute window with relevant stats, anecdotes and outlooks that benefited the audience.

Let me share the takeaways from this 50-minute session.  While my first statement -- that the primary obstacle to increased M&A activity in 2012 will the unrealistic price expectations of sellers -- split the room vote, things started to get interesting with point #2.  Yup, the vote trended towards a "disagree" position when I said "banks that are thinking about selling would be better off waiting until 2013 when valuations will be higher than they are likely to be in 2012."  

By statement #3 -- "Increased bank and accounting regulation will be a driving factor in why many community banks consider selling" -- the vibe in the crowd began to trend toward more disagreement than agreement from the crowd.  But nothing like the 4th point -- one that had the crowd voting in mass against my statement that M&A will be the only way to grow in 2012.  Almost 90% took the side of the cons.  So while we wait for the seemingly inevitable wave of consolidation, it seems to me that this year sets up nicely for all those companies looking to help banks explore organic means to grow their franchises.

(*Here's how this session works: two attorneys and two investment bankers have 2 minutes per statement to argue their position.  After that, I open things up to the audience to decide if they agree or disagree with the statement, weighing in via an automated response device that tabulate 500+ votes in near-real time.)

With my last post focusing on the digital side of our business, a quick entry to highlight another big piece of our company.  

For the past 21 years, we've been the leading information resource for officers and directors of financial institutions. Chairmen, CEOs, CFOs, General Counsel, Presidents and members of the boards at institutions of all sizes rely on us to keep pace with an ever-changing financial landscape.  A more powerful & influential audience base simply does not exist at any other banking organization in the United States.

So yes, I'm pretty proud to write about this hugely influential organization of which I'm a part.  Since re-joining the firm in September of '10, I've shared some behind-the-scenes information relative to ways we've improved the quality and frequency of the board-level information we share. From our digital channels to research reports to publications, I do my best to give an insider's look at how a small business like ours operates on a national scale.  So its our conference groups turn for its day in the sun; specifically, the "granddaddy" of all our conferences, Acquire or Be Acquired (shortened to AOBA which is pronounced A-O-Bah) that kicks off in Arizona later this month.

Long recognized as the premier M&A and growth event, this 3-day conference addresses the most important trends in the merger and acquisition landscape and other growth options.  Right now, we are at 639 attendees -- and I expect we will break 650.  Easily our best turn out in the 18 years  we've been hosting this particular event.  I just saw the demographics and thought to share:

Who is coming (by title)

• 46% = CEO/President
• 13% = Chairman
• 11% = CFO
• 23% = Outside Directors
• 7% = Other senior executives of financial institutions

Are they public or private?

• 25% = Public
• 75% = Private

This is a pretty good ratio when you consider of the 7800+ banks in the U.S., approximately 500 are publicly held...

Where are they (regionally) joining us from?

• 5% = West
• 61% = Central
• 18% = Northeast
• 16% = Southeast

If you're coming out to one of my all-time favorite hotels (the Arizona Biltmore) from January 29 - 31, please let me know.  With many predicting a massive wave of consolidation in the coming years, this should be an interesting & spirited three days together!

If you read yesterday's post (or want to pause, scroll down and think about the role of private equity funds in 2012), you know I'm sharing some of my favorite stories that Bank Director covered in 2011.  The hook?  Each story relates to 2012 in some practical/specific way. Today's is an M&A-play, with yes, a decidedly backward-looking theme.

During the real dogs days of summer here in D.C., I had the chance to cool off in a meeting with several attorneys from one of the country's leading corporate law firms.  The guys I was sitting with run the firm's Banking & Financial Services group -- and combined expertise in capital markets, debt trading, derivatives and financial product structuring & restructuring.  Walking in, I'll admit I started to second-guess my decision to get an MBA over a JD a few years ago.  

Fortunately, the senior-most member of the team put me at ease right off the bat by complimenting our exceptionally talented editor, Jack Milligan.  Jack had just written a piece about Capital One's announced acquisition of the U.S. credit card business of HSBC Holdings PLC for approximately $2.6 billion.  This was one of the first "big" stories that ran on our just-launched BankDirector.com, and while we track impressions, visits, etc., I was thrilled to hear from folks in-the-know that his piece resonated.

Specific to today's post, several of the partners praised the juxtaposition of an article Jack wrote in 2006 about Capital One's strategy of diversification with his "What is Rick Fairbank’s Endgame?" piece.  In their view, his ability to draw on such experience and perspective separates him from many other journalists offering quick judgements while appearing casually indifferent to the past.

To the story itself, the timing of the Capital One deal was, shall we say, interesting.  Global equity markets were panicking over the combination of S&P’s historic downgrading of the United States’ credit rating, deep concerns about the wobbly financial state of major European countries like Italy and France and the distinct possibility that the U.S. economy might be slipping back into another recession.  So placing a bet as big as this?  Definitely a wow moment that Jack neatly summarized:

Capital One Corp. CEO Rich Fairbank is a smart guy, but I think he needs to work on his timing. I mean really, who announces a major credit card portfolio acquisition on the same day that the Dow Jones Industrial Average drops 519.83 point – or 4.62 percent – for an 11-month low, particularly when big banks like Citigroup, Bank of America Corp. and J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. led the way down?... 

...Of course, Capital One had been working on the HSBC deal for months – so the exact timing of the August 10 announcement wasn’t something that Fairbank had much control over. But if you know anything about Rich Fairbank you know he’s a fearless strategist who won’t hesitate to pull the trigger on an acquisition if he believes it’s the smart thing to do.

While the market responds to acquisitions like this early, time will tell if the deal returns sufficient value to Capital One's shareholders.  Nonetheless, as I look back on 2011 -- and think ahead to 2012 -- it strikes me that we need more "fearless strategists" like this.  Men and women who combine a strong vision with clear strategy, an appropriate appetite for risk and commitment to execution.  While we've run a number of strategy-focused or deal-oriented stories on BankDirector.com since Jack's article, this one sticks out based on the happy combination of peer recognition, the launch of our new site and focus on growth strategies during some of the darkest days of consumer + investor confidence.

AOBA (ay-oh-bah): shorthand for the financial industry’s premier M&A and growth event since 1995. 

Its hard for me to believe, but in less than three months, more than 700 leaders from the financial community will gather at the Arizona Biltmore for Bank Director’s annual Acquire or Be Acquired conference.  Already, we are tracking more than 75 attendees ahead of last year’s record turnout.  The agenda is set, speakers have been confirmed, and our conference team has already reached out to set up speaker calls.  In addition to M&A, this event provides bank officers and directors with best practices and invaluable first-hand information on strategy, capital formation, deposit growth, dealing with criticized assets and alternatives for liquidity.  Why the shameless plug for this event? How else to "justify" posting this new promotional video?

When the Wall Street Journal blasted the news that IBM acquired Netezza earlier today for $1.78 billion, I immediately dropped a note to my brother + soon-to-be brother-in-law to give them a heads up.  You see, the three of us have been talking about the "Big Data" space for a while now (thanks in part to my connections with some great folks at Aster Data).  Both family members are in the world of finance -- James in NYC, Nick in London -- and like to engage in pre- and post-deal talk at crazy times.  Like during a football game or at a wedding.  While I'm not on their level, I certainly appreciate that they include me in their discussions!  

Professionally, I'm fascinated by companies like Aster, Netezza, etc. that allow media companies to perform real-time, in-depth analyses of year-over-year data to optimize digital media "solutions."  But to James + Nick's interest, IBM's acquisition, preceded by EMC's purchase of Greenplum this July, suggests that other tech companies might soon be fielding new calls from potential acquirers.  While I could fill the rest of today's post with my own ideas of who might be next, I'd like to take it in a different direction that ties in with my new role at Bank Director.  

As I see it, the deal reinforces the value of enterprise-wide analytics in and among companies and government agencies.  In the past, I've written about how tools -- like those offered by a Netezza -- continue to gain mainstream support in companies and government agencies.  One such agency interested in the potential power of data analytics is the Comptroller of the Currency, a self-funded agency within the Treasury department (*if you're not familiar with the organization, OCC charters, regulates and supervises all national banks).  Before I left my old tech firm for Bank Director, I'd called on OCC's CIO to explore the promise of agile data management (which ties deep analytics with Big Data tools and data-driven dashboards).  So as I read this morning's press release, I couldn't help but reflect on what I'd learned about OCC's needs -- and the types of companies that might be well positioned to meet them.

Ironically, I switched from the WSJ article to a conference call with my new colleagues who themselves are going through a culture change (having been acquired by the NYSE).  Guess what I heard?  Nothing more than the former head of the OCC agreeing over the weekend to speak at Bank Director's flagship conference: Acquire or Be Acquired in Arizona in early 2011.  So too much of a coincidence not to share the overlap on DCSpring21.  Yes, it will be interesting to hear how he fields growth-oriented questions from sponsors + attendees, especially as government and financial institutions continue to converge around areas and opportunities designed to fuel expansion or acquisition.  But for the purposes of this post, how appropriate that the day starts with an M&A story and ends on the same note?  Albeit, one is about what's already happened, the other, what will be.